Pronto the wire

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US Recession Risk (12-month)

PUBLISHED · ID recession_risk_12m

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The live view recomputes US Recession Risk (12-month) on the wire and shows the method it used and every signal it read, so the number can be checked rather than trusted.

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01

Mathematical Model & Methodology

Estrella-Mishkin (1998) probit on the 10y-3m Treasury spread; FRBNY methodology

02

Source Signal Inputs

  • macro
03

Access & Integration

Computed in real time and available over the MCP tool get_fused_signal at /mcp, and enumerated in the fusion products guide. Included from the Team plan. Compare access at /pricing or call get_plans over MCP. Readings depend on current source availability; source licences still apply.