pronto.stream · fusion product

US Recession Risk (12-month)

Name: US Recession Risk (12-month) — Pronto Fusion Product
Creator: Pronto Signal Engine Inc.
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

PUBLISHED · id recession_risk_12m

Model

Estrella-Mishkin (1998) probit on the 10y-3m Treasury spread; FRBNY methodology

Inputs

macro

Access

Computed in real time and available over the MCP tool get_fused_signal at /mcp, and enumerated in the fusion products guide. Live metrics: stats.json. Free to cite with attribution.